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Buyers’ market for steel, analysts say
6/2/2009
By Paul E. Teague -- Purchasing, 5/27/2009 1:37:00 PM
It will be a buyers’ market for steel through the rest of this year and into 2010.
That’s the forecast that John Anton, steel analyst at IHS Global Insight, provided during a special webcast May 26, 2009 at Purchasing’s online community, www.purchasingbizconnect.com.
Steel prices could hit bottom in the next month or so, Anton said. But, he sees no general recovery this year.
Steel and Construction Materials Analyst Timna Tanners, of UBS Investments, agreed, but added that prices could be volatile, though they won’t rally above 10% by the end of the year. She said demand is down about 40% and that inventory destocking is contributing to weakness in steel markets.
Both analysts agreed that the auto industry is nearing bottom in activity. But, said Tanner, automotive only accounts for about 15% of steel demand. Construction, which accounts for about 40% of demand, will be negative for the next year or two, she said. Anton added that construction will decline further until mid 2010 and that decline will negate gains in manufacturing.
(Purchasing’s latest buyer surveys show that the price of hot-rolled sheet is at a five-year low.)
John Mothersole, non-ferrous analyst for IHS Global Insight, told webcast attendees that it’s a buyers’ market for base metals too. “What’s happening in China is the key,” he said, explaining that China’s stimulus package is “gaining traction.” He said that base metals prices are moving up, but there could be a moderate correction. Excess capacity is a limiting factor, he said.
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Thoughts for Today
1/1/2009
Trust in the Lord with all your heart; do not depend on your own understanding.
Seek his will in all you do, and he will show you which path to take. Proverbs 3:5,6 (NLT)
The desire to succeed means nothing without the will to
prepare.
Commit to the Lord, whatever you do, and your plans will SUCCEED!
Prov. 16:3 (NIV)
“Unless we know what we're willing to die for, we may never figure out what we're living for.”
Unknown Source
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